• USD/IDR fades bounce off weekly low, pressured inside immediate range.
  • Indonesia trade surplus shrinks as imports jump more in November.
  • Indecision ahead of FOMC adds filters to the sluggish trading.

USD/IDR remains pressured around intraday low, down 0.05% on a day near $14,320 amid early Wednesday morning in Europe. The Indonesian rupiah pair refreshed weekly low the previous day but stayed sidelined afterward.

In doing so, the pair pays a little heed to November’s foreign trade data for Indonesia. That said, Indonesia’s Trade Balance eased from $5.74B prior and $4.45B expected to $3.51B in November. Further details suggest that the Imports rallied to 52.62% versus 37.55% market consensus and 51.06% whereas Exports grew 49.7% versus 44% forecast and 53.35% prior.

Other than the data, mixed concerns over today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also challenge USD/IDR prices.

A contrast between the downbeat US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, versus a record high Producer Price Index (PPI) for November test Fed hawks of late. On the same line is the covid-linked anxiety as virus updates from the West battle vaccine hopes and expectations of stimulus.

Against this backdrop, Asia-Pacific shares trade mixed whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields and the S&P 500 Futures remain sluggish by the press time.

Moving on, Fed’s verdict is the key for USD/IDR traders amid higher hopes of faster tapering and signals for rate hike in 2022.

Read: Fed Interest Rate Decision Preview: Can the FOMC satisfy and mollify the markets?

Technical analysis

A daily closing below a two-month-old support line near $14,300 becomes the key support before directing USD/IDR bears to the $14,170 support.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price 14322.25
Today Daily Change -5.6000
Today Daily Change % -0.04%
Today daily open 14327.85
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 14336.59
Daily SMA50 14265.462
Daily SMA100 14296.1585
Daily SMA200 14364.9872
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 14361.3
Previous Daily Low 14192.5
Previous Weekly High 14526
Previous Weekly Low 14189.2
Previous Monthly High 14455
Previous Monthly Low 14168
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 14296.8184
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 14256.9816
Daily Pivot Point S1 14226.4667
Daily Pivot Point S2 14125.0833
Daily Pivot Point S3 14057.6667
Daily Pivot Point R1 14395.2667
Daily Pivot Point R2 14462.6833
Daily Pivot Point R3 14564.0667

 

 

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