- USD/IDR keeps bounces off 200-day SMA, nears one week high of 14,795 flashed recently.
- BI is likely to keep 7-day reverse repo at 4.0% for the fourth consecutive time.
- 13-day-old resistance line joins 50-day SMA to challenge the bulls.
- The key Fibonacci retracements can lure sellers below 200-day SMA.
USD/IDR eases from the intraday high, also the weekly top, near 14,795 to 17,773, up 0.14% on a day, during Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair eyes Bank Indonesia’s (BI) October month rate decision while attacking 50-day SMA and a falling trend line from September 24.
The BI isn’t expected to alter the current monetary policy while holding the benchmark rate at 4.0%, unchanged since July irrespective of the recently downbeat economics at home.
The expected move, actually inaction, can take clues from the bearish MACD to fetch the quote back to the 200-day SMA support level of 14,671.
However, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s June-September rise, respectively around 14,496 and 14,345, will challenge the USD/IDR bears afterward.
On the flip side, any surprises from the BI can propel the quote to break the 14,800 immediate resistance while aiming at the monthly high of 14,940.
It should additionally be noted that the USD/IDR bulls may target the September 24 high near 15,065 and the monthly high of September, at 15,140, during the additional rise past-14,940.
USD/IDR daily chart
Trend: Pullback expected
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