USD/CAD testing bullish commitments at 200-DMA ahead of US Retail Sales

  • USD/CAD stalls rebound from two-month lows of 1.2453 amid DXY weakness.
  • The retreat in WTI prices fails to deter CAD bulls ahead of key US Retail Sales.
  • The pair clings onto the 200-DMA, bears await acceptance below that support.

USD/CAD is battling 1.2500, unable to sustain the recovery rally from nine-week lows of 1.2453 reached on Thursday.

The persistent weakness in the US dollar, despite the uptick in the Treasury yields, recalls sellers, as investors remain wary ahead of the critical US Retail Sales and prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment releases.

The currency pair shrugs off the pullback in WTI price from a two-month top of $82.45, as CAD bulls remain undeterred. Oil prices ease from higher levels amid dwindling energy demand from China and concerns that the US may soon act to cool off prices. China's annual crude oil imports slid 5.4% in 2021, dropping for the first time since 2001.

Technically, USD/CAD is testing the bullish commitments at the critical 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 1.2501, having managed to recapture the latter on Thursday after a sharp sell-off under the key support level.

A sustained move below the latter will call for a retest of the two-month lows near 1.2450, below which the further downside will open up towards 1.2400.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding well below the midline, suggesting that the rebound was short-lived.

USD/CAD: Daily chart

On the other hand, if the recovery momentum revives, then bulls could once again move towards the 1.2550 psychological barrier.

The next relevant bullish target is then seen at Wednesday’s high of 1.2579, paving way for a fresh advance towards 1.2600 – the round level.

USD/CAD: Additional levels to consider


Today last price 1.2499
Today Daily Change -0.0018
Today Daily Change % -0.14
Today daily open 1.2517
Daily SMA20 1.2743
Daily SMA50 1.2701
Daily SMA100 1.2625
Daily SMA200 1.2502
Previous Daily High 1.252
Previous Daily Low 1.2454
Previous Weekly High 1.2814
Previous Weekly Low 1.2631
Previous Monthly High 1.2964
Previous Monthly Low 1.2608
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2494
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2479
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2474
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.243
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2407
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.254
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2563
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2606



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