According to analysts at ANZ, a lot of positive news is priced into the USD, with the surprise index close to a six-year high.
“So while momentum is solid, the USD is vulnerable to disappointment. There are many reasons for core inflation to pick up, but we don’t think this CPI report will show strength just yet. Black Friday anecdotes suggest retail sales will be solid, but without fireworks. As such, we think risks are asymmetric: positive surprises will back current USD strength, but the CPI and the retail sales will matter more if we get negative misses.”
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