US Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Markets to watch for signs of labor trouble


US Unemployment Claims are set to remain around 700,000, indicating stabilization after a gradual decline, but business closures and restrictions could generate a second wave of layoffs. The dollar could attract safe-haven trade if claims rise substantially, Joseph Trevisani, an Analyst at FXStreet, informs.

Key quotes

“Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to be essentially unchanged at 707,000 in the week of November 13 following 709,000 previous. Continuing Claims are expected to drop to 6.47 million in the November 6 week from 6.76 million. Both predictions would be the lowest of the pandemic era.”

“Even with the COVID-19 vaccines on the horizon, there is time for the current recovery to grind to a halt if the closures become extensive or last long enough to again cripple consumer spending. Up to this point no US governor has ordered business operations restricted to essential services. Most measures involve rolling back reopenings, limiting social gatherings, advice against travel and curfews for bars and restaurants.”

“Currency markets have not expressed an opinion on this wave of the pandemic. The dollar has been largely contained in its ranges of the past four months against the euro while the yen and the Canadian dollar have continued their slow gains. The situation, however, is fragile. If claims unexpectedly rise will the safety-trade to the dollar resume? For the moment it seems unlikely as the surging caseload in Europe, several weeks ahead of the states, Japan and elsewhere has had no impact and the increase in the US was predictable and inevitable. Yet the US is the home of the dollar as well as the largest economy.”

“The world and the US could again be in for several very unpleasant months, or not. No one really knows. In the US the bad news will surface in unemployment claims first.”

 

 

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Upbeat China PMIs favor bulls near fresh three month high around 0.7400

AUD/USD remains positive after China’s activity data for November flashed welcome signs. November’s China NBS Manufacturing PMI, Aussie TD Securities Inflation flashed more than expected results. Market mood stays cautious optimistic amid vaccine hopes, Brexit jitters and Aussie-China tussle.

AUD/USD News

EUR/USD: Refreshes three-month high towards 1.2000, battles triangle resistance

EUR/USD eases from fresh high since September 01. The pair rose to the highest in three months before a few hours but couldn’t cross the upper line of a five-week-old ascending triangle formation. RSI conditions warrant caution, bears are less likely to take entries above 1.1870.

EUR/USD News

NZD/USD refreshes 2.5-year high on strong China PMI above 0.7400

NZD/USD rises to the fresh high since June 2018 after China data. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI beat market forecasts in November. ANZ Business Confidence, Activity Outlook also came in positive for November.

NZD/USD News

Gold: Trades below 200-day MA for first since March

Gold is trading below the widely-followed 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since March. The metal is changing hands near $1,783 per ounce, representing a 0.25% loss on the day. 

Gold news

Black Friday 2020 Discounts!

Learn to trade with the best! Don't miss the most experienced traders and speakers in FXStreet Premium webinars. Also if you are a Premium member you can get real-time FXS Signals and receive daily market analysis with the best forex insights!

More info

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures