Analysts at Nomura explains that consistent with other consumer surveys, US consumer optimism improved further in the February Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Fed.
“Median expected income growth over the next year increased to 3%, up 0.2pp, as the economy continues to grow above potential. The mean probability of the unemployment rate being higher one year from now decreased to a new series low of 32.3%. However, possibly reflecting recent market volatility, the mean probability that US stock prices will be higher one year from now declined to 43.0% in Feb, down 1.9pp. Consumers remain upbeat overall as unemployment remains low and income growth steady. Inflation expectations at both the shorter (one-year) and longer run (three-year) horizons increased by 0.1pp to 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively.”
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