Strategists at Danske Bank take a close look at COVID-19’s role in the swing states as Trump’s coranavirus infection is set to raise COVID-19 attention after downward trend. Former Vice-President Joe Biden maintains his large lead in national and opinion polls against Trump.
Key quotes
“Dividing states on who won the 2016 election shows how the virus has since June taken a much larger toll on Trump states compared with Clinton states. The handling of COVID-19 underscores the issue of Republican decentralisation. The decentralization agenda has lead the Trump administration to leave much of the COVID-19 handling to each state which has caused some unintended side effects.
“The handling has left the general public dissatisfied with 61% of US adults deeming that the US has not done enough to control the outbreak. Although the view is heavily skewed towards people leaning Biden, 30% of people leaning Trump share this dissatisfied view.”
“Generally the swing states have been hit harder by COVID-19 compared to the state average, which seems to have benefited Biden. In Arizona Biden is leading by 2.7pp, in Iowa Biden is leading by 1.2pp, in Florida Biden is leading by 3.7pp, in Wisconsin Biden is leading by 6.3pp and in Nevada Biden is leading by 4.2pp. All the above mentioned states share the common trait that Biden was either neck and neck with Trump or behind in polls back in March, but has now gained at least 2pp and is now leading in many of the states comfortably.”
“Looking at prediction markets, Joe Biden’s probability of winning has increased after the first presidential TV debate and Trump being infected. Since our last edition, Connecticut has gone from leaning Biden to likely Biden. Minnesota is now a toss-up from leaning Biden, this could just be a minor fall out in a state with very infrequent polls.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.