US Elections: Biden leads nationally, Electoral College race is closer – Standard Chartered


A week before election day, Biden’s lead remains stable at around 8ppt as Electoral College projections still favour Biden but the race is tightening in some key swing states. The Senate is still projected to flip Democrat while the impact of record early voting is uncertain, per Standard Chartered.

Key quotes

“Biden’s lead in the average of polls has stabilised at 8ppt, one week before election day. This is a substantial lead, especially if we compare it to Hillary Clinton’s in 2016: not only was her lead at the same stage lower (close to 5ppt) but it had been volatile throughout 2016, with Trump overtaking several times. In terms of trends, following the first presidential debate and the subsequent COVID-19 diagnosis for the president, Biden’s lead edged close to 10ppt. It has recently narrowed closer to 8ppt.”

“One of the most respected organisations – Project.FiveThirtyEight.com – says that out of 40,000 election scenario simulations, Biden wins the Electoral College in 87% of the outcomes. In fact, the range of possibilities suggests that Biden could win as many as 400 Electoral College votes. But again, the actual number of votes required to change that – just a few thousand, if allocated in key counties of key swing states – can dramatically alter the outcome, in a disproportionate manner.”

“Americans will also vote on 3 November for members of the House of Representatives (all seats) as well as about one-third of the Senate (see Biden’s race to lose). Since the vote for the House is well correlated with popular vote intentions, it is widely expected that the Democrats will keep the House. For the Senate, projections of state-level polls have shown for weeks that the Democrats have a good chance to flip the Senate, with a projected tight 51-49 outcome, although some Senate races have tightened in recent weeks in places where a Democrat is projected to topple an incumbent Republican senator. Five states could determine the Senate outcome: Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina and Iowa. Whether the Democrats win both the presidency and the Senate (assuming they keep the House) will be key to assess the potential for substantial policy change.”

 

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