US Dollar treading water around 89.80 ahead of US data

  • The index looks for direction around 89.80 on Monday.
  • US 10-year yields flirting with tops near 2.85%.
  • US Retail Sales, Empire State Index and Fedspeak next on tap.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading without any clear direction on Monday while keeping the 89.80/75 band so far.

US Dollar attention to data

After two consecutive session with gains, the index is now looking to add to the recent upbeat momentum against the backdrop of alleviated geopolitical concerns over the US-Syria-Russia front and the potential US-China trade war.

The greenback still appears correlated to the risk-on sentiment, although this scenario could change in case of another escalation in the US-Syria conflict, which could also involves Russia, and the view of the buck as a safe haven.

The risk-on bias is also reflected in the US money markets, where yields of the key US 10-year reference are now flirting with highs in the 2.85% neighbourhood.

On the positioning front, USD speculative net shorts climbed to 6-week tops in the week ended on April 10, according to the latest CFTC report.

Data wise today, US Retail Sales will be in the limelight seconded by the Empire State Index, NABH index and TIC Flows. In addition, the buck should stay in centre stage as Dallas Fed R.Kaplan (non voter, hawkish), Minneapolis Fed N.Kahkari (non voter, dovish) and Atlanta Fed R.Bostic (voter, centrist) are all due to speak later in the day.

US Dollar relevant levels

As of writing the index is losing 0.06% at 89.75 facing the next support at 89.40 (low Apr.11) seconded by 88.94 (low Mar.27) and then 88.25 (2018 low Feb.16). On the other hand, a breakout of 89.95 (high Apr.12) would aim for 90.60 (high Apr.6) and finally 90.89 (38.2% Fibo of 95.15-88.25).

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