Analysts at Nomura explained that various consumer sentiment surveys have recently sent mixed signals. In the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer survey for April, consumer sentiment deteriorated somewhat as a number of respondents spontaneously mentioned concern about US trade policy.
"However, the Conference Board’s consumer survey showed a pick-up in consumer optimism during April. Overall, the variation across surveys indicates that perhaps trade concerns will not weigh as much on consumer sentiment going forward. That said, we continue to see trade policy as an elevated risk. According to the April Michigan report, inflation expectations at the one-year horizon ticked down 0.1pp to 2.7% in April and appear to have stabilized somewhat since January 2017 after a prolonged decline. The expected inflation rate over the next five years remained unchanged at 2.5%."
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