UK ComRes GE2019 Poll: Conservatives: 42% (-1%) vs Labour: 32% (-1%)


UK ComRes GE2019 Poll:

  • Conservatives: 42% (-1%) .
  • Labour: 32% (-1%) .
  • Lib Dems: 12% (-1%) .
  • Brexit: 3% (-1%).

FX implications:

Nothing here to rock the apple cart. Markets pay closer attention to the YouGov polls that have shown a consistent lead in the poll by the tory party. Should the Tories win, it is highly expected that a Brexit deal will get done which has been supporting GBP crosses. However, the Conservative-Labour vote spread has narrowed slightly, now teetering around 10%.

There were two election risks in view, according to analysts at TD Securities:

  • US President Trump visit: Trump is in London for NATO meetings. While he has pledged to stay out of the election, moments later he said Johnson is very capable and will do well and waded into the NHS trade deal debate. Any "helpful" comments from Trump may not actually be very helpful for Johnson.
  • Friday's Johnson-Corbyn debate: Johnson needs to prevent Corbyn from landing any fatal blows during their head-to-head debate. If polls narrow more decisively into the 5-10ppt range, that would likely see GBP pare back some of its recent gains. We do expect another YouGov MRP poll before election day to further guide expectations.

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