Analysts at TD Securities suggest that Sweden’s August's CPI report is likely to show stronger CPIF and CPI (both to 2.3% y/y), with TDS call for CPIF in line with the market consensus.
“Of much more importance is the CPIF ex-energy figure, which we expect to remain unchanged from July's 1.3% y/y, which is in line with last week's Riksbank forecast. But there remains great uncertainty around the August figures--new methodology last year for package holidays meant that the category fell over 20% m/m in August 2017, and while we look for this to roughly repeat, there are significant risks in the monthly evolution of the series until seasonal patterns can be more fully established.”
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