Although the S&P 500 remains up 12% year to date, touching a new high earlier this month, it now looks set to limp along into the end of the year. Worsening COVID-19 conditions may weigh on US market sentiment, however, investors should focus on encouraging signs, including positive news on vaccines, Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer, Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley, reports.
“COVID-19 Vaccines: At least three different research trials have produced better-than-expected results. The three treatments closest to distribution have all indicated near 95% efficacy. The first up could be made available to high-risk groups and front-line workers as early as December, and the global economy could be benefitting from a broad roll-out of vaccines by the second quarter of next year. If by the late summer, we see near-universal availability of vaccines, that could suggest an end to the pandemic by the third quarter.”
“Pent-Up Consumer Demand: We believe extraordinary demand has built up that could provide upside to our 2021 US real GDP forecast of 5.9%. Despite continuing high unemployment, many households have shored up savings, if for no other reason than the inability to spend on entertainment and travel, including commuting costs. These savings set up a meaningful, and still underappreciated, tailwind for growth in the second half of next year.
“Rising Small-Cap Stocks: The 20-year high in small-cap earnings revisions offers further evidence that the economic recovery has gathered momentum under the surface. Such revisions have historically been a precursor of an economic rebound. With 91% of stocks in the Russell 2000 Index, a broad benchmark of small-cap companies, now running ahead of their 50-day moving average, 50 years’ worth of data suggest good odds for positive forward returns.”
“Long-term investors should take advantage of the potential deterioration in sentiment over the next couple of months to add to the asset classes and sectors that are most likely to benefit, as the US emerges from recession in 2021. Consider adding to US small caps, cyclicals like financials, industrials, materials and consumer services, and non-U.S. stocks, including Japanese and emerging markets equities.”
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