According to analysts at ABN AMRO, trade war worries could trigger a correction in crude oil prices during the third quarter. On the long run, they warn about the possibility of higher prices.
“OPEC will raise oil production by nominal 1mb/d. In practice, this means that net production will increase by roughly 600 kb/d to meet the rise in demand and prevent supply shortages. Oil prices hardly reacted as the market focus shifted from possible supply shortages towards the decline in reserve capacity. This shift in focus can be partly explained by the still excessive levels of speculative long positions.”
“For the near term, oil prices will be driven by opposing factors. The rise in production/exports by Saudi-Arabia and UAE is balanced by lower output in Venezuela, Iran and Libya. Worries regarding a possible trade war may trigger a correction lower towards USD 70/bbl for Brent in Q3.”
“Longer run, supply issues will become even more critical. Unless demand start to weaken, higher prices could be seen in the course of 2019.”
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