NZD/USD: risk-off in a massive way taking down the commodity complex with it, CRB clings to 198

  • NZD/USD technicals are mixed, but monthly well and truly bearish, marrying with the fundamentals.
  • Eyes on global equities and CSI 300 index that is in free fall  - Dow down over 600 points, Nasdaq 230; S&P risks longest losing streak in 2 years - off 5% from highs - CRB clings to 198.

NZD/USD has extended the downside, caught up in the overall malaise in the risk markets with the VIX extending on to 20 while the stock market plunges to fresh corrective lows as fears over the state of China's economy and trade wars takes a hold and shakes the complacency out of the markets. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6463, down from a high of 0.6497 and making a low of 0.6454 so far.

NZD/USD was struggling to close above the 23.6% Fibo at 0.6489 in the short squeeze high yesterday whee the bird marked a fresh correction high of 0.6497. The Chinese Yuan is troublesome for the antipodeans as USD/CNH embarks on a run through R1 and towards R2 up at 6.9462 if it is able to clear the channel horizontal resistance at 6.9186, Oct. 8 highs. 

Risk factors to be considered

The IMF argued that the global financial stability risks are rising with trade tensions - The organisation recently cut the global growth forecast from 3.9% to 3.7%. With respect to trade wars, Trump said recently that China is not ready to reach a trade deal. This brings us to the ramifications of an extended trade war for China. Investors are alert to the poor performance of the Chinese markets this week.  the CSI 300 index is in free fall which investors on Wall Street are concerned about. 3,200 is the level to watch and we are not far from it - Should 3,200 give out, we are looking at the potential for a subsequent test of the week commencing 10th Sep lows at 3,191. 

"The NZD squeezed higher yesterday on the back of a rally in risk. The opposite was the case overnight, leaving 65 cents out of reach. We expect this type of choppy price action to become more of the norm, but ultimately we still feel the NZD is in a ‘sell on rallies’ environment," analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand argued.

NZD/USD levels

  • Support 0.6350.
  • Resistance 0.6500.

Technicals are mixed, although fundamentals are very much in the bear's favour. It appears to be the end of the steep decline for now judging by the price action emphasised with a daily and weekly bullish daily spinning top. However, RSI has headed higher but struggles to get off the floor - so there has been some divergence there vs the daily sticks climbing, with price action morphing bearishly. 4hr RSI is now below neutral.  

Bulls need to at least a toe dip their toes into the 0.65 handle - Just above 0.6489, that 23.6% Fibo of the decline from the 21st Sep highs at 0.6999 to the recent extension lows of 0.6424. However, the monthly charts are more indicative of a continuation to the downside, with RSI headed south towards 30 with chars in a sea of red and no obvious indication of any sustainable let-up.  
 

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