NZ: Stable housing market - ANZ

Liz Kendall, Senior Economist at ANZ, notes that REINZ housing market data for March point to a broadly stable housing market of NZ.

Key Quotes

“National sales volumes fell 4.5% m/m (sa). But looking through monthly volatility, activity is broadly stable, down 0.3% y/y (3-month m.a.). House price inflation is also stable, with prices up 0.5% m/m (sa). Annual house price inflation is running at 3.9% y/y (3-month m.a.), supported by regional price pressures. We expect house price inflation will eventually moderate, with regional divergence expected to continue as the regions play catch up.”

Key Results

  • Sales fell 4.5% in March, but can be volatile on a monthly basis. We would characterise nationwide housing market activity as broadly stable, down 0.3% y/y (3-month m.a.).
  • National house prices were up 0.5% m/m in March (sa) to be up 1.5% in the quarter. Our preferred measure of house prices – the REINZ House Price Index (HPI) – is up 3.9% y/y (3-month m.a.).
  • We expect house price inflation will gradually moderate. We maintain the view that the market is unlikely to take off due to affordability constraints, credit headwinds and new Government policies. Regional divergence is likely to continue, with regions playing catch up.”

 

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