NZ: Immigration continues to trend lower

Analysts at ANZ note that the New Zealand’s permanent and long-term net migration inflows fell by 350 in September to 4,640 (seasonally adjusted), with 80% of the fall driven by lower arrivals and 20% by higher departures.

Key Quotes

“At 62,700, annual net inflows are now down 13.4% since the cycle peaked in July 2017.”

“Monthly arrivals fell by 280 to 10,490 (sa), driven by a 300 drop in non-New Zealand and non-Australian arrivals.”

“Short-term visitor arrivals fell 1.9% m/m (sa), but that was on the back of last month’s 2.8% rise. Overall, visitor arrivals remain buoyed at a high level, boosted by holiday makers which account for almost 65% of total short-term arrivals.”

“Net migration inflows are evolving broadly as expected, with departures trending higher owing to the natural cycling out of previous arrivals (those who are here on temporary visas) and New Zealanders answering the call of a strengthening Australian labour market.”

“Arrivals should remain relatively buoyed, but could come off at a faster pace if soft employment intentions from own ANZ Business Outlook Survey are acted upon.”

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