NY Fed's GDP Nowcast plummeted to 1.3% for Q3 of 2017

"The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2017:Q3 and 1.8% for 2017:Q4,"  the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced on Friday.

Key quotes:

  • News from this week's data releases reduced the nowcast for both quarters by 0.8 percentage point.
  • The decrease was driven by a large negative surprise from industrial production, and to a lesser extent by a negative surprise from retail sales.
  • Part of the decline in manufacturing is related to hurricane Harvey. The nowcasting model is likely to overestimate the negative impact since the platform is entirely automated and no judgmental correction is performed to account for the exceptional nature of the disruption.

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