Erik Johannes Bruce, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that Norway’s core inflation in October came in at 1.6% y/y down from 1.9% last time.
“Nordea was 1.9%, consensus 1.8% while Norges Bank’s forecast was 1.6%.”
“One reason why inflation fell and ended up below our forecast was airfares. It pulled down core by 0.12% point. Food also pulled down and more than we had expected. (0.15% point). Apart from this the picture was a bit mixed with clothes and shoes pulling up.”
“All else equal unchanged airfares in November will pull up y-o- y growth in core inflation to 1.9%. That is however close to Norges Bank’s forecast at 1.8%.”
“Our first impression is therefore that inflation will have been close to Norges Bank’s forecast when the December report is made. Inflation will not contribute to any change in the path.”
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