JP Morgan now sees a 50% chance of a Brexit deal to be struck


Amid increased expectations that a Brexit deal will be reached, the US investment bank JP Morgan’s one of the key Brexit watchers also expected a Brexit deal now.

Key Quotes:

This changes everything - we now expect a deal.

If our understanding of the situation is correct, a “solution” to the Irish border problem which could ultimately be acceptable to all parties (if rather inelegant) has been identified.

Sees a 50% chance of a withdrawal agreement being struck with a “modified/time-limited” Irish backstop. It had previously put the likelihood at just 5%.

Meanwhile, its worth noting that the money markets have push back the timing for first 25-bps Bank of England (BOE) rate cut to December 2020 vs. March seen earlier this week.

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