India: Headline CPI likely to continue to push higher – TDS
Analysts at TD Securities suggest that India’s headline CPI is likely to continue to push higher, rising to around 5.22% YoY in November in our view.
Key Quotes
“CPI rose to a 16-month high of 4.62% y/y in October, above the RBI's medium term target of 4%.” Read more...
USD/INR hits fresh three-month lows near 70.50, tariffs eyed
USD/INR extended its four-day losing streak and hit fresh three-month lows of 70.54 over the last hour, mainly in response to broad-based US dollar weakness and foreign fund inflows.
The Indian rupee kept its recent upbeat momentum intact vs. its American peer, as higher domestic equities and persistent foreign fund inflows strengthened investors’ sentiment in the local currency.
Meanwhile, the US dollar remains heavy across its main peers after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) left the rates on-hold on Wednesday while signaled an intention to keep interest rates unchanged in 2020 unless there is a material change to the economic outlook.
It's more of the dollar weakness that is hurting the USD/INR pair while increased nervousness ahead of the key meeting between US President Trump and his trade adviser to discuss the Dec. 15 tariffs also weighs negatively on the price. Read more...
India’s headline CPI rose to a 40-month high in November – ANZ
"India’s headline CPI rose to a 40-month high in November. Although the increase was driven by higher food prices, core inflation also picked up for the first time in four months," note ANZ analysts.
Key quotes
"We expect price pressures to remain elevated till January. Core inflation will also face upside risks from increased telecom tariffs, effective this month."
"Overall, this dilutes the case for a February rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) given their cautiousness on rising inflation." Read more...
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