The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its monthly Oil Markets Report this Thursday and warned that spare oil production capacity risks being stretched to the limit due to prolonged outages, which might continue to support prices and also threaten demand growth.
• Saudi spare capacity could shrink to unprecedented levels.
• Maybe left with less than 1 mil bpd in spare capacity.
• Higher OPEC output tightens Gulf spare capacity to around 1.6 mbpd in July.
• Sees no sign of higher production from elsewhere that might ease fears of market tightness.
• Iran oil exports could be reduced by significantly more than the 1.2 mbpd seen in the previous round of sanctions.
• China, India could face major challenges in sourcing crude oil due to a fall in Venezuela and Iran exports.
• Maintains forecast for 2018 global oil demand growth at 1.4 million bpd.
• Increases 2018 estimate for OPEC crude demand by 100,000 bpd to 32 mbpd.
• Cuts 2019 call by 100,000 bpd to 31.4 mbpd.
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