Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, suggests that there seems to be a broad agreement at the ECB to do something this week, but the latest comments by several hawks suggest that there still is a heated debate on which policy measures the ECB should implement.
Key Quotes
“The traditional hawks like Jens Weidmann from Germany, Klaas Knot from Netherlands and Sabine Lauthenschläger on the ECB's Executive Board voiced their opposition at least against a restart of QE.”
“In our view, even if the group of QE-skeptical hawks has grown, it still looks like a vocal minority. With inflation expectations probably deviating further from the ECB’s target, there will in our view be a vast majority in favour of new action. And despite the hawks opposition, it is doubtful that only a rate cut will be sufficient. In this regards and to better understand how many at the ECB are currently thinking, a speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane from last week provides interesting insights.”
“According to estimates Lane presented, the ECB’s unconventional measures since 2014 had lifted both growth and inflation some 0.5 percentage points higher. Interestingly, almost half of the impact came from QE. Don’t forget that when the ECB started QE in 2015, the staff projections predicted an acceleration of inflation from 0.5% in 2014 to 1.3% in 2016. Currently, the risk of dropping from an environment of de facto economic stagnation and low inflation into deflation is probably as high as in 2014/5.”
“Therefore, we continue to see the ECB starting a final monetary firework at this week’s meeting: a 20bp rate cut of the deposit rate, a small tiering system, a repricing of the TLTROs and a restart of QE with some 30 billion euro per month. Even though there is the risk that the hawks’ opposition could lead to a delay of QE.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.0700 after US data
EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase below 1.0700 in the early American session on Wednesday. The data from the US showed a strong increase in Durable Goods Orders, supporting the USD and making it difficult for the pair to gain traction.
USD/JPY refreshes 34-year high, attacks 155.00 as intervention risks loom
USD/JPY is renewing a multi-decade high, closing in on 155.00. Traders turn cautious on heightened risks of Japan's FX intervention. Broad US Dollar rebound aids the upside in the major. US Durable Goods data are next on tap.
Gold trades on the back foot, manages to hold above $2,300
Gold struggles to stage a rebound midweek following Monday's sharp decline but manages to hold above $2,300. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the green above 4.6% after US data, not allowing the pair to reverse its direction.
Worldcoin looks set for comeback despite Nvidia’s 22% crash Premium
Worldcoin price is in a better position than last week's and shows signs of a potential comeback. This development occurs amid the sharp decline in the valuation of the popular GPU manufacturer Nvidia.
Three fundamentals for the week: US GDP, BoJ and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge stand out Premium
While it is hard to predict when geopolitical news erupts, the level of tension is lower – allowing for key data to have its say. This week's US figures are set to shape the Federal Reserve's decision next week – and the Bank of Japan may struggle to halt the Yen's deterioration.