Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rebounds from multi-week lows, back closer to $1,750


Gold reversed an early North American session dip closer to multi-week lows and shot back above the $1,740 level in the last hour, albeit lacked follow-through. The uptick was exclusively sponsored by the softer US dollar, which tends to benefit the dollar-denominated commodity. Following the recent strong bullish run to the highest level since September 2020, the USD bulls took some breather on Thursday amid the current impasse over the US debt ceiling. A vote to avert the risk of a government shutdown from Friday and extend the federal government’s funding until December 3 is due early this Thursday.

The USD bulls seemed rather unimpressed by mixed US economic releases, which showed that the world's largest economy expanded by 6.7% annualized pace in the second quarter as against 6.6% estimated. This, however, was offset by an unexpected jump in Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to 362K from 351K in the previous week. That said, expectations the Fed would begin tapering its bond purchases as soon as November and raise interest rates in 2022 acted as a tailwind for the greenback. This, along with a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields, could cap gains for the non-yielding gold.

Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on mood – as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets – might further hold traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the XAU/USD. Hence, the uptick could be solely attributed to some short-covering move, which runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. This makes it prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before confirming that gold prices might have bottomed out in the near term and positioning for any further gains. Market participants now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Committee on Financial Services for some short-term trading opportunities.

Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, any subsequent positive move is likely to confront stiff resistance near the $1,753-54 horizontal zone. A sustained move beyond might trigger a short-covering move and push the XAU/USD further towards the next relevant hurdle near the $1,775 area. On the flip side, multi-week lows, around the $1,722-21 region, could act as immediate support. A convincing break below should pave the way for deeper losses and allow bearish traders to challenge the $1,700 round-figure mark.

Levels to watch

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 1738.5
Today Daily Change 12.18
Today Daily Change % 0.71
Today daily open 1726.32
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1776.92
Daily SMA50 1786.2
Daily SMA100 1811.11
Daily SMA200 1803.48
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1745.56
Previous Daily Low 1721.71
Previous Weekly High 1787.35
Previous Weekly Low 1737.83
Previous Monthly High 1831.81
Previous Monthly Low 1687.78
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1730.82
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1736.45
Daily Pivot Point S1 1716.83
Daily Pivot Point S2 1707.35
Daily Pivot Point S3 1692.98
Daily Pivot Point R1 1740.68
Daily Pivot Point R2 1755.05
Daily Pivot Point R3 1764.53

 

 

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