Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD floats above $1,800 inside bearish channel, Fed’s Powell eyed

  • Gold Price grinds higher after refreshing weekly low, snaps two-day downtrend.
  • US dollar strength probes gold buyers, downbeat Treasury yields portray recession risks and weigh on prices too.
  • Central bankers’ comments at the ECB Forum will be crucial for fresh impulse.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) pares weekly losses around $1,822 as an escalation in the recession risks propels the metal’s safe-haven demand heading into Wednesday’s European session. However, a firmer US dollar and anxiety ahead of the key data/event appear to test the quote’s upside momentum of late.

Reuters’ news that the European Central Bank (ECB) teases plans to announce details of a bond-buying scheme magnifies the market’s cautious mood. However, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane sees a double-sided risk of spiraling inflation and an economic slowdown, per CNBC.

It’s worth noting that the latest weakness in the macro data joins inflation fears and geopolitical tussles surrounding Russia and China to also amplify the risk of economic slowdown.

Additionally, the risk reversal (RR) for gold stays down for third consecutive week to -0.125 versus -0.350 the last. The daily RR, the difference between the call and the puts, also drops the most in a week to -0.135 at the latest.

The US dollar, however, appears cautious in cheering the risk-off mood as the Fed policymakers have been trying not to repeat the latest rate hike trajectory in the next moves. Even so, the jump in the US one-year retail inflation expectations allows the US Dollar Index (DXY) to refresh its weekly top near 104.60 of late.

Amid these plays, stock futures print mild gains but the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped the most in a week during the second negative day.

That said, the gold traders should keep their eyes on the monetary policy discussions among the central bankers from the US, the UK and the European Union (EU) at the ECB Forum seems for fresh impulse. Ahead of that, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for Q1 2022, expected to remain unchanged at 5.1%, could entertain traders.

Technical analysis

Gold portrays multiple failures to cross the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of June 12-14 downside, which in turn joins the recently steady RSI (14) to suggest the metal’s further downside.

That said, the latest bottom surrounding $1,818 may offer immediate support before directing the quote towards the two-week-old bearish channel’s bottom line, near $1,809. Following that, the $1,800 threshold and the monthly low of $1,805 could test the bears before directing them to the yearly trough close to $1,786.

Alternatively, a clear upside break of the aforementioned Fibo. hurdle near $1,823 could extend the corrective pullback towards the 50-HMA and the 200-HMA levels, respectively around $1,825 and $1,832.

However, the XAU/USD bears remain hopeful until the prices remain below the stated channel’s resistance line, at $1,835 by the press time.

Gold: Hourly chart

Trend: Further weakness expected

Additional important levels

Today last price 1821.12
Today Daily Change 1.12
Today Daily Change % 0.06%
Today daily open 1820
Daily SMA20 1839.5
Daily SMA50 1855.57
Daily SMA100 1892.07
Daily SMA200 1844.71
Previous Daily High 1829.51
Previous Daily Low 1818.47
Previous Weekly High 1847.95
Previous Weekly Low 1816.99
Previous Monthly High 1909.83
Previous Monthly Low 1786.94
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1822.69
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1825.29
Daily Pivot Point S1 1815.81
Daily Pivot Point S2 1811.62
Daily Pivot Point S3 1804.77
Daily Pivot Point R1 1826.85
Daily Pivot Point R2 1833.7
Daily Pivot Point R3 1837.89



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD rebounds above 1.0300 as dollar resumes post-US CPI decline

EUR/USD rebounds above 1.0300 as dollar resumes post-US CPI decline

EUR/USD has jumped back above 1.0300 amid fresh weakness in the US dollar. Risk sentiment regains traction despite the US-Sino tensions and China's covid woes. Investors reassess the US inflation data and its impact on Fed rate hike expectations.


GBP/USD recaptures 1.2200 ahead UK ministers’ meeting with energy firms

GBP/USD recaptures 1.2200 ahead UK ministers’ meeting with energy firms

GBP/USD is paring losses to trade above 1.2200 in early European trading. The US dollar sees renewed selling amid the return of risk flows. The safe-haven dollar fails to capitalize on China-linked concerns. The UK ministers will meet major energy firms amid a deepening energy crisis. 


Gold: Sellers poke $1,784 support on Fed, China jitters

Gold: Sellers poke $1,784 support on Fed, China jitters

Gold price holds lower grounds around intraday bottom near $1,780, as bears attack the 50-DMA heading into Thursday’s European session. The precious metal respects the US dollar’s latest rebound amid mixed concerns surrounding the Fed's next move and China.

Gold News

Shiba Inu price edges close to a 60% breakout as bears watch in disbelief

Shiba Inu price edges close to a 60% breakout as bears watch in disbelief

Shiba Inu price shows a resilience that has not only kept it above a significant support level but also managed to slowly catalyze a move that could result in a 60% upswing.

Read more

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

Tap into our 20 years Forex trading experience and get ahead of the markets. Maximize our actionable content, be part of our community, and chat with our experts. Join FXStreet Premium today!