Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD failure at $1,870 opens the door for a retest of $1,850


  • XAU/USD falls as the New York session begins, fails to break above $1,870.
  • US T-bond yields are flat, around 1.60%, as Wall Street opens.
  • XAU/USD Price Forecast: Failure to conquer $1,870 would expose $1,850 as strong support for the non-yielding metal.

Gold (XAU/USD) slides from $1,870s towards the $1,860 area, after a mild-weaker than expected US Initial Jobless Claims reported during the New York session. At press time, XAU/USD is trading at $1,865, down 0.08%.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, also known as BLS, reported the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on November 13. The figures came at 268K, 8K higher than estimations, but 1K lower than the previous week, revised up to 269K. Surprisingly Continuing Jobless Claims fell by 200K, from 2.209M to 2.080M in the week ending November 6.

According to sources cited by Bloomberg, Unemployment claims "have been declining on a sustained basis, and are moving to pre-pandemic levels." It further added, "layoffs are falling, reflective of companies holding on to workers amid a labor shortage.''

Once the news crossed the wires, XAU/USD dipped to the daily S1 pivot at $1,858 but instantaneously recovered above the $1,860 region.

Further, as the Wall Street open approaches, US bond yields remain subdued as in the overnight session. The US 10-year benchmark note is flat at 1.60%, while the US Dollar Index took a breather after holding to the 95.80 level, down 0.02%, sitting at  95.76.

XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The daily chart shows that gold found strong resistance around the November 16 high at $1,877. Since then, it has failed to sustain a break above the $1,870 figure, and today is not an exception.

The yellow metal still has an upward bias, however, as the 100-day moving average (DMA) is crossing over the 200-DMA. Nevertheless, the 50-DMA remains at the bottom of the pile, failing to gain traction, so it could give gold bulls another reason to open fresh bets against the greenback.

On the downside, the XAU/USD's next support area would be "$1,857, the intersection of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week." According to Dhwani Mehta, Analyst at FX Street. A break below the abovementioned level could send gold tumbling towards the confluence of the monthly R2 pivot point and the November 17 low around $1,849, which would be the last line of defense for gold buyers.

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 1865.38
Today Daily Change -1.52
Today Daily Change % -0.08
Today daily open 1866.9
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1816.71
Daily SMA50 1786.76
Daily SMA100 1792.29
Daily SMA200 1791.83
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1868.13
Previous Daily Low 1849.63
Previous Weekly High 1868.71
Previous Weekly Low 1812.47
Previous Monthly High 1813.82
Previous Monthly Low 1746.07
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1861.06
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1856.7
Daily Pivot Point S1 1854.98
Daily Pivot Point S2 1843.05
Daily Pivot Point S3 1836.48
Daily Pivot Point R1 1873.48
Daily Pivot Point R2 1880.05
Daily Pivot Point R3 1891.98

 

 

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