Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes $1,760 hurdle as Federal Reserve Minutes highlight ‘pivot’ discussions


  • Gold price grinds higher following a rebound from the key support.
  • Federal Reserve Minutes appeared dovish as policymakers weighed softer interest rate hikes, pivot point.
  • Softer United States statistics also drowned the US Dollar, as well as propelled Gold price.
  • China-linked market fears, Thanksgiving holiday can allow XAU/USD to pare recent gains.

Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidates the recent gains at around $1,750 during Thursday’s Asian session, after posting the biggest daily jump in a fortnight. In doing so, the precious metal struggles for clear directions amid a lack of major data/events, as well as a Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

Gold price cheers softer US Dollar as Federal Reserve Minutes spot ‘pivot’ discussions

Gold price benefited from the softer US Dollar as the US Dollar Index (DXY) marked the biggest daily slump in two weeks as the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials discussed the need of slowing down the interest rate hikes. That said, the Greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies refreshed a one-week low following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, defensive near 106.15 at the latest.

In addition to the debate over the softer interest rate hikes, the “sufficiently restrictive” level of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rates also fuelled the US Dollar and favored the Gold price buyers.

United States statistics also fuelled the Gold price advances

Mostly downbeat statistics from the United States also weighed on the US Dollar and favored the Gold price to rise further.

The preliminary readings of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November eased to 47.6 from 50.0 expected and 50.4 prior whereas the Services PMI also followed the suit while declining to 46.1 compared to 47.9 market forecasts and 47.8 previous readings. Overall, the S&P Global Composite PMI for November dropped to 46.3 versus 47.7 expected and 48.2 prior readouts.

Additionally, the United States Weekly Jobless Claims rose the most since June, to 240K versus 225K expected and 223K prior, which in turn favored the sentiment and drowned the US Dollar while fueling the Gold price.

Alternatively, the US Durable Goods Orders increased by 1.0% in October versus 0.4% marked expectations and downwardly revised 0.3% prior.

Risk catalysts, Thanksgiving Day in United States may test XAU/USD bulls

Be it the market’s cautious optimism due to the expectations of softer interest rates or the downbeat statistics from the United States, not to forget the below-mentioned technical details, the Gold price has more positives to cheer about. However, China’s Covid woes could join the likely inaction on the floor, due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US, to allow the bullion buyers to take a breather. Even so, downbeat prints of the United States Treasury bond yields and firmer closing of Wall Street benchmarks keep Gold buyers hopeful.

Gold price technical analysis

Gold price defends the bounce off a convergence of the 100-day and 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), despite the latest retreat.

That said, bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicators also keep the Gold buyers hopeful of piercing the 200-day EMA hurdle, currently around $1,760.

However, a downwards-sloping resistance line from early July, around $1,778 by the press time, could challenge the Gold price upside.

Alternatively, a convergence of the aforementioned EMAs, around $1,724, restricts the Gold price downside, a break of which could direct the XAU/USD sellers toward the $1,700 threshold.

In a case where Gold price remains bearish past $1,700, July’s low near $1,680 could limit the bullion’s further downside.

Overall, the Gold price remains on the buyer’s radar but further upside appears limited.

Gold price: Daily chart

Trend: Limited upside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price 1749.78
Today Daily Change 9.35
Today Daily Change % 0.54%
Today daily open 1740.43
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1706.46
Daily SMA50 1682.38
Daily SMA100 1711.67
Daily SMA200 1800.81
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1749.81
Previous Daily Low 1737.1
Previous Weekly High 1786.55
Previous Weekly Low 1747.6
Previous Monthly High 1729.58
Previous Monthly Low 1617.35
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1744.95
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1741.96
Daily Pivot Point S1 1735.08
Daily Pivot Point S2 1729.74
Daily Pivot Point S3 1722.37
Daily Pivot Point R1 1747.79
Daily Pivot Point R2 1755.16
Daily Pivot Point R3 1760.5

 

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD clings to recovery gains below 1.0400 ahead of German inflation

EUR/USD clings to recovery gains below 1.0400 ahead of German inflation

EUR/USD is holding onto recovery gains below the 1.0400 mark heading in early Europe. The renewed sell-off in the US Dollar amid the China reopening optimism underpins the Euro. Focus shifts to ECB-speak and Germany's inflation data. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD retreats from daily highs, holds above 1.2000

GBP/USD retreats from daily highs, holds above 1.2000

GBP/USD has lost its bullish momentum and retreated toward 1.2000 during the European trading hours on Tuesday. With the upbeat market mood not allowing the US Dollar to gather strength, however, the pair stays in positive territory ahead of US data, Bailey testimony.

GBPUSD News

Gold recovery needs acceptance above $1,760

Gold recovery needs acceptance above $1,760

Gold price picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s losses amid cautious optimism in the financial markets. Easing in China Covid numbers, efforts to defend reality sector join downbeat US Dollar to favor Gold buyers. Hopes of more positives from China signal further upside. 

Gold News

Can XRP price kick-start 30% upswing if China removes zero-Covid restrictions?

Can XRP price kick-start 30% upswing if China removes zero-Covid restrictions?

XRP price shows that it is taking its sweet time to overcome and sustain above a crucial resistance level. It could catalyze a quick run-up.

Read more

Hawkish Fed speak adds to macro headwinds

Hawkish Fed speak adds to macro headwinds

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an online event that the Fed will need to hike rates into next year and that there is still "a ways to go" before a policy is "restrictive."

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures