- Gold drops into a fresh critical daily support structure.
- The US dollar is bid and making fresh 20-year highs.
- Price pressures are entrenched and investors are seeking out the safe havens.
The price of gold is losing some 1.60% at the time of writing, falling from a high of $1,858.87 to a fresh cycle low of $1,822.27. The US dollar is bid and climbed to fresh two-decade highs on Thursday as investors flock to the safe-haven currency in the face of surging inflation.
Data on Wednesday confirmed expectations for further aggressive hikes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. The Consumer Price Index climbed 8.3%, higher than the 8.1% estimate but below the 8.5% in the prior month. The index rose just 0.3% last month, the smallest gain since last August, the Labor Department said on Wednesday, versus the 1.2% MoM surge in the CPI in March, the most significant advance since September 2005. However, ''the fact that the CPI is driven by rents and services implies that price pressures are entrenched and may manifest in upward pressure on wages too,'' analysts at TD Securities argued.
As a consequence, the dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.4% to 104.92 on Thursday following a jittery day on Wednesday.
"Dollar is rallying as things potentially look negative in the US, which is hurting gold. Also, the market is realising the likelihood of seeing pretty aggressive interest rate increases," analysts at TD Securities said.
However, precious metals are holding up relatively as a drop in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which hit the lowest level in two weeks, has capped some of the bear's progress. The ten-years are down over 3% while the more Fed tentative 2-years are losing 3.7%, weighed by Producer Prices that fell short of expectations.
The US Producer Price Index increased by 0.5% in April compared with a 1.6% jump in March. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI climbed by 0.4%, lagging the 0.7% gain expected. Core PPI grew by 1.2% in March. On a year-over-year basis, producer price inflation surged 11% in April, and core PPI jumped 8.8%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday.
''The dollar is gaining today despite falling yields, which illustrates the so-called dollar smile whereby it gains during periods of risk off as well as in periods of strong US data and rising yields. Either way, the dollar’s climb is likely to continue for the time being,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained.
Gold technical analysis
The gold price has fallen from a 4-hour resistance as follows:
Prior analysis:
Live update:
A move below the lows of the day will open new territories for the bears and prospects of a test below the psychological $1,800 round figure:
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance.
Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed
Gold price hit all-time highs at $2,236 on Thursday to finish Q1 2024 with a bang. Most major world markets, including the US are closed due to Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued. US PCE inflation and Powell are awaited.
Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern
Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.
Key events in developed markets next week
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.