Germany: GDP dropped by 5% in 2020, economy more resilient than expected – Deutsche Bank


German economy has proven to more resilient than expected as 2020 GDP fell by -5.0%. For 2021, economists at Deutsche Bank keep their +4.5% GDP forecast.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair remains stuck in the 1.2150 region.

Key quotes

“Germany has – so far – mastered the pandemic much better than other large EMU countries. According to the first estimate by Federal Statistical Office, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a GDP decline of 5.0% in 2020 (consensus -5.2%), which is – contrary to concerns back in spring – less than the -5.7% decline recorded in 2009.”

“We keep our +4.5% GDP forecast for 2021. While the economy seems to have performed better towards the end of last year, as suggest by the smaller-than-expected annual decline in 2020, the outlook for Q1 has become more clouded, given the extension of the lockdown until the end of January and – more importantly – indications by key politicians that at least some of the measures could be extended until Easter, given the unabated pandemic.”

 

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