GBP/USD: smashes down the 1.29 door, now knocking on 21-D SMA, dollar stripped of safe-haven status

• GBP/USD has just popped 1.29 the figure and the 21-D SMA, and likewise, the euro has pierced the 1.16 handle. So what's going on?
• However, looking ahead, the dollar might struggle even further.
• bulls to make a full-on drive for a break of the channel's resistance opens 1.3112 as the 50-D SMA.

Well, there has been no data and it's the markets getting ahead of themselves, picking the cherry off the top of the cake and knocking the dollar while its down. 

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Risk is 'on' and that is bad news for the dollar considering it has taken up so much of the idle capital of late since Trump kicked the Lira under a bus which sent contagion risk sentiment to the extremes, when in fact, most of other EM nations do not suffer the same diabolical economic practices that Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has put into place. Nor do they have the same deteriorating relations to the US as Turkey. This is something that markets are waking up to and the sentiment is turning positive as well with respect to Chinese and US trade relations. All of the above is stripping the greenback of its safe-haven appeal that it suddenly accumulated over the past several weeks and that is enabling the G7's and commodities to bounce. 

For the pound specifically today, the Brexit wires have been, on balance, a little more positive after the comments streaming through from  UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab's and his EU counterpart, Barnier's, presser after meeting today for the latest round of Brexit talks in Brussels.  Barnier came with, "We are not aiming for a 'no deal' scenario but we are prepared for it," and Raab soothed nerves as well by saying, "Confident that we can reach a deal in October". That is sterling bullish overall, but the market took Barnier's "we are prepared for it" as a reason to fade prior bid in cable, up from 1.2793 to the high of 1.2878 before this extension in the downside for the greenback that leads to bulls knocking on the door of the 21-D SMA on the 1.29 handle. 

Further downside to come in the greenback this week? 

However, looking ahead, the dollar might struggle even further. We have the Jackson Hole coming up this Friday which has been tipped by analysts at ABN Amro to be potentially Fed dovish. If the Chinese/US initial talks also turn out to be that roadmap for a solution to end the dispute by the end of the year, the dollar will likely be looking at 94.80 instead of 97.20. 

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GBP/USD levels

A bullish scenario has been creeping its way back onto the charts this week and since Friday's close. The Fibonacci level at 1.2918, (50% retracement of the move up from 2016) remains as the key upside target on this test of  1.29 the figure. The 21-D SMA just up ahead before a full-on drive for a break of the channel's resistance opens 1.3112 as the 50-D SMA.  On the flipside, the 10-D SMA is at 1.2783 on a break back through the 1.28 handle (1.280.50 support areas). Then, 1.2677 guards, a run back to 1.2589 on the wide as the June 2017 low. 1.1985 is the H&S objective below there.