GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls flirt with 23.6% Fibo./200-hour SMA confluence, just above 1.3700

  • GBP/USD regained positive traction on Monday and recovered a part of the previous session’s losses.
  • The uptick was sponsored by some cross-driven strength stemming from a fall in the EUR/GBP cross.
  • A goodish pickup in the USD demand might cap the upside near the 1.3710-15 confluence resistance.

The GBP/USD pair attracted some dip-buying on the first day of a new trading week and rallied over 50 pips from the daily swing lows, around the 1.3660-55 region. The momentum pushed the pair above the 1.3700 mark, though bulls struggled to capitalize on the move.

The intraday uptick lacked any obvious fundamental catalyst and was exclusively sponsored by some cross-driven strength stemming from a sharp decline in the EUR/GBP cross. That said, the emergence of some buying around the US dollar kept a lid on any further gains for the GBP/USD pair.

Prospects for an early rate hike by the Fed continued underpinning the USD, which got an additional boost from a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot beyond the 1.50% threshold for the first time since June.

The USD maintained its bid tone near one-month tops following the release of mostly better-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders for August. Headline orders rose 1.8% in August and orders excluding transportation items recorded a modest 0.2% growth during the reported month.

From a technical perspective, the positive move stalled just ahead of 200-hour SMA, around the 1.3710-15 region. The mentioned area coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the hawkish BoE-inspired rally from the 1.3600 mark and should now act as a key pivotal point for traders.

Meanwhile, oscillators on hourly charts have been gaining some positive traction but are yet to confirm a bullish bias on the daily chart. This further makes it prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the 1.3710-15 confluence hurdle before positioning for any further gains.

This is followed by the post-BoE swing highs, around mid-1.3700s, above which the GBP/USD pair is likely to accelerate the move and aim to reclaim the 1.3800 mark. The next relevant resistance is pegged near the 1.3835-40 region ahead of the 1.3870-75 supply zone.

On the flip side, the daily swing lows, around the 1.3660-55 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and turn the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to slide back towards challenging the 1.3600 mark, or monthly lows.

GBP/USD 1-hour chart


Technical levels to watch


Today last price 1.3694
Today Daily Change 0.0007
Today Daily Change % 0.05
Today daily open 1.3687
Daily SMA20 1.3772
Daily SMA50 1.3788
Daily SMA100 1.39
Daily SMA200 1.3842
Previous Daily High 1.3736
Previous Daily Low 1.3658
Previous Weekly High 1.3752
Previous Weekly Low 1.361
Previous Monthly High 1.3958
Previous Monthly Low 1.3602
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3688
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3706
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3651
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3615
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3573
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3729
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3772
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3808



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