GBP/USD moves away from multi-month low, retakes 1.2900 ahead of BoE/Fed

GBP/USD scales higher amid some repositioning ahead of key central bank event risks.
The BoE and the Fed are due to announce their respective policy decision later today.
The fundamental backdrop warrants caution before placing bullish bets around the pair.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from its lowest level since mid-August, around the 1.2835-1.2830 region touched the previous day. Spot prices now look to build on the momentum beyond the 1.2900 mark as the market attention shifts to key central bank event risks.

The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its policy decision later today and is widely expected to lower interest rates for the second time this year on the back of slowing inflation. That said, expectations that UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' first budget would boost inflation, and cause the BoE to cut interest rates more slowly, offering some support to the British Pound (GBP). This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, turn out to be key factors pushing the GBP/USD pair higher.

However, any meaningful USD corrective slide, from a four-month top touched on Wednesday, seems elusive amid optimism about higher growth and inflation under Donald Trump's second presidency, which could reduce the pace of interest rate cuts. Hence, the outcome of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting, along with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the post-meeting press conference will play a key role in influencing the USD.

In the meantime, the return of the so-called Trump trade keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated near a multi-month peak. This, in turn, should act as a tailwind for the Greenback and cap the upside for the GBP/USD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom. Meanwhile, bearish traders need to wait for a breakdown below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing fresh bets.

Economic Indicator

BoE Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP.

EUR/USD turns negative around 1.1600

EUR/USD is once again under selling pressure, sliding back towards the key 1.1600 support area amid a renewed upswing in the US dollar. The greenback has gathered further momentum after President Trump voiced praise for Kevin Hassett in connection with the Fed chair role.

GBP/USD trims gains, back below 1.33400

The current rebound in the Greenback prompts GBP/USD to surrender a big chunk of its earlier gains and slip back below the key 1.3400 mark on Friday. The marked bounce in the US Dollar followed the markets’ reaction to the likelihood that K. Hasset could become the next Fed Chief.

Gold weakens below $4,600 on USD rebound

Gold adds to Thursday’s small decline and breaks below the $4,600 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week. The precious metal’s corrective move comes on the back of easing geopolitical tensions and the late improvement in the Greenback.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP hold support amid waning retail demand

Bitcoin slips but holds above $95,000, weighed down by declining retail demand. Ethereum trades narrowly between the 100-day EMA support and the 200-day EMA resistance. XRP edges lower for the third consecutive day, driven by a persistently weakening derivatives market.

Week ahead – US PCE and Davos in focus for Dollar traders – BoJ meets

US PCE, PMIs and remarks from Davos could impact Fed cut bets. BoJ to stand pat; focus to fall on guidance after election reports. UK CPI and retail sales data may confirm bets of more BoE cuts.

Dash Price Forecast: DASH defies headwinds, paces toward $100

Dash extends its rally, reaching an intraday high of $96.85 despite the broader crypto market correcting. Retail interest in DASH explodes as futures Open Interest soars to $165 million.