GBP/JPY off lows, defends 200-DMA support for the time being


The GBP/JPY cross came under some renewed selling pressure after disappointing UK retail sales data and touched a fresh weekly low.

The cross, however, has managed to bounce off few pips from the very important 200-day SMA support near 139.65-60 region and is currently hovering around 140.00 psychological mark. 

On Friday, the cross accelerated its reversal move from two-week highs touched on Wednesday after the UK retail sales unexpectedly contracted in January. In fact, on a monthly basis the sales dropped by 0.3%, taking the yearly growth sharply lower to 2.6% from previous month's 4.7%.

Today’s dismal data added on to recent slew of disappointing UK macro releases, including this week's CPI print and wage growth data, and weighed on the British Pound across the board.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen continued to gain traction on Friday amid prevalent risk-off mood, which tends to benefit traditional safe-haven currencies, and further collaborated to the pair's sharp slide on the last trading day of the week. 

With today's slide, the cross has now reversed all of its tepid gains posted in the previous week and now seems all set for second weekly declines in the previous three.

Technical levels to watch

A follow through selling pressure 200-day SMA support near 139.60 region is likely to accelerate the slide towards 139.30-25 horizontal support before dropping back to Feb. monthly lows support near 138.55-50 region (Feb. 7 low).

On the upside, any recovery attempts might now confront immediate resistance near 140.45-50 region above which the pair is likely to surpass 141.00 handle and head towards 141.35 strong horizontal resistance. 

1 Week
Avg Forecast 141.63
100.0%50.0%25.0%020304050607080901000
  • 25% Bullish
  • 25% Bearish
  • 50% Sideways
Bias Sideways
1 Month
Avg Forecast 139.38
0.0%100.0%25.0%0-1001020304050607080901001100
  • 25% Bullish
  • 75% Bearish
  • 0% Sideways
Bias Bearish
1 Quarter
Avg Forecast 133.48
100.0%80.0%0.0%0-1001020304050607080901001100
  • 0% Bullish
  • 80% Bearish
  • 20% Sideways
Bias Bearish

 

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