In terms of correlations, the markets have been somewhat out of synch this month.
The US dollar's relationship with yield differentials, i.e., the spread between US treasury yields and bunds widening, one would be expecting to see flows to the us and the dollar, (more money to be made from moving money to the us from Europe), but we have seen quite the opposite in 2018 so far. Markets are also keeping an ear to the ground for geopolitical developments and the latest from the white house, Brexit, oil and central banks.
The spectre of inflation is haunting markets - Rabobank
US Dollar anaemic below 89.00
Here are a number of headlines that have been flowing in since the European/North American session handover gathered from Live Squawk:
Central banks:
- Japan is said to consider Wakatobi for senior BoJ post - Nikkei
- Norges bank’s Olsen: Norway's central bank may hike its key policy rate in 2018
- Rtrs sources: Swedish central banker set for renewed term at Riksbank, formal decision likely Friday
- Eu parliament: ECB's lane is more convincing for vice president role
- ECB's Lautenschlager: could need for more active macroprudential policy, tightening of existing borrower-based measures
- ECB's Lautenschlager: current financial stability risks ‘not too pronounced’
The White House
- US TSY Sec. Mnuchin declines to comment on consequences of withdrawing from NAFTA, US priority is to renegotiate
- US TSY Sec. Mnuchin: cautiously hopeful us will be able to renegotiate NAFTA
- US TSY Sec. Mnuchin: tax fix may be needed for issue affecting retailers
- US TSY Sec. Mnuchin: tax law fix may be needed on qualified improvements
- US TSY Sec. Mnuchin: unsure if gun proliferation was addressed in budget
- US TSY Sec. Mnuchin affirms administration’s 2.9% economic growth forecast
- US president Trump loses in travel ban ruling with supreme court
- US Attorney General sessions: immigration deal is moving towards ‘mass amnesty’
Oil Headlines
- UAE Oilmin: OPEC urging members to build oil capacity buffers to temper ‘any wild upswings’ in oil price due to weak USD – National Newspaper
- Venezuela's president Maduro: oil output up 200,000 BDP at start of year
- Russian Oilmin Novak: could see oil price fluctuate $50-70/bbl range this year
- Russian Oilmin Novak: could see current oil prices persist through 2018
Geopolitical headlines
- N. Korea says u.S. to pay dear price for raising human rights issue - Yonhap
Brexit headlines
- Bundesbank’s Wuermeling: Brexit may harm major funding channels for EU (expects Brexit to ‘change London's role in finance’)
Data headlines
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey Feb: 25.8 (est 21.8; prev 22.2)
- NY empire state manufacturing index Feb: 13.1 (est 18; prev 17.7)
- US initial jobless claims 10-Feb: 230k (est 228k; prev r 223k)
- Continuing jobless claims 3-Feb: 1942k (est 1925k; prev r 1927k)
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