Forex Today: US’ Hong Kong bill dents risk; FOMC minutes to hog the limelight


Fresh US-China political tensions cropped up after the US Senate approved the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 and China threatened to retaliate against the US interference in its internal affairs. The investor sentiment got heavily hit by the latest Chinese angst as it could weigh negatively on the US-China trade talks. The safe-havens such as the JPY, US dollar and Gold advanced at the expensive of the risk/ higher-yielding assets such as Treasury yields, global equities and Antipodeans.

Both the Aussie and the Kiwi felt the heat of the mounting US-Sino trade and political risks. AUD/USD traded in the red but held above the 0.68 handle while NZD/USD fell about -0.15% to near 0.6415 levels. Meanwhile, USD/JPY moved off lows but the recovery lacked follow-through around mid-108s amid risk-aversion. USD/CAD benefited from a broadly firmer US dollar and subdued oil prices, as markets eyed the Canadian inflation data.

Heading into the European open, both the EUR/USD pair and Cable were under pressure. The pound suffered from ITV’s political debate between Johnson and Corbyn that ended on a poor note.

Main Topics in Asia

UK election debate: Common ground that UK austerity is over – Rabobank

Australian Leading Index keep signaling weak economic momentum carrying into 2020 – Westpac

US Senate approves Hong Kong human rights bill, sends to House of Representatives - RTRS

US Commerce Sec Ross: I am optimistic we can get something done on China

US 10-year Treasury yield hits two-week low

Fitch affirms China at 'A+'; outlook Stable

China's ForeignMin reiterates threat to retaliate against US bill on Hong Kong

China’s ForeignMin: Logged stern representations with the US over Senate action on Hong Kong

The PBoC prime loan rate decisions: Cut by 5 basis points for 1 and 5 year rates (CNY lower)

Japanese ruling coalition are seeking JPY 10 tln for the extra budget - Nikkei

NZD bullish: BNZ ups Fonterra’s milk payment forecast

PBOC’s Yi: PBOC to continue to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, increase credit support

Japan’s Nishimura: No change to view that economy is recovering

Sources: China tariff demands may expand 'phase one' trade deal significantly - Reuters

USD/INR remains under pressure as US-China tussle dominates Asia

Key Focus Ahead

Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI), due at 0700 GMT, will kick-off a quiet European calendar, as the only release of note remains the European Union (EU) Financial Stability Review at 0900 GMT. The UK docket continues to remain a dry one so far this week, as the UK political updates take over ahead of the December 12 elections.

In the NA session, the main event risk remains the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Oct meeting’s minutes due at 1900 GMT, which will be closely followed for any hints on a Dec rate cut and 2020 US interest rates outlook. Ahead of the Fed event, the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will headline at 1330 GMT. Also, the focus will be on the US weekly Crude Stock data due to be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at 1530 GMT and the European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Lane’s speech scheduled at 1700 GMT.

Meanwhile, the overall market sentiment will continue to remain at the mercy of the US-China trade and political developments at least until the FOMC minutes release.

EUR/USD: Inside bar candle makes today's close pivotal, focus on Fed minutes

EUR/USD created an inside bar candlestick pattern on Tuesday, making today's close pivotal.  A close above Tuesday's high would imply a continuation of the rally from 1.0989.  The focus is on the FOMC’s view on the risks to the outlook.

GBP/USD: Sluggish above 1.2900 as UK PM Johnson struggles to top the polls

GBP/USD declines for the second consecutive day amid doubts over the Tory leader’s public favor after the ITV debate. Broad USD strength offers additional weakness to the pair. FOMC minutes, trade/political headlines in focus.

Silver Could Follow the Bearish Way of Gold

Silver prices moved mostly upward in the intraday session; however, Gold fell, likely looking for a new monthly low. In this post, we'll review our arguments for anticipating further declines in Silver.

FOMC Minutes October 29-30 Preview: Reinforcing the rate pause

October meeting cut fed funds rate 0.25%, the third decrease this year. Base rate at a 1.50%-1.75% target range. Fed policy moved to neutral awaiting data confirmation.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Wednesday, Nov 20
07:00
 
0.0%
0.1%
07:00
 
-0.4%
-0.1%
09:00
 
 
n/a
 
 
0.07%
12:00
 
 
9.6%
13:30
 
1.9%
1.9%
13:30
 
0.3%
0.0%
13:30
 
1.9%
1.9%
13:30
 
 
0.1%
13:30
 
0.3%
-0.4%
15:30
 
1.062M
2.219M
17:00
 
 
19:00
 
 
23:50
 
 
¥528.8B
23:50
 
 
¥569.5B
Thursday, Nov 21
02:00
 
5.5%
4.8%
04:30
 
-0.2%
0.0%
n/a
 
5%
5%
07:30
 
 
4.8%
08:10
 
 
09:30
 
£8.600B
£8.734B
09:40
 
 
12:30
 
 
13:30
 
218.182K
217.000K
13:30
 
219K
225K

 

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