Here is what you need to know on Friday, October 4:
- The US Dollar has consolidated its losses following the third consecutive disappointing data with EUR/USD falling to hit 1.10. The Purchasing Managers' Index for the services sector fell to 52.6, a three-year low. The accumulation of weak data has pushed bond yields lower and safe-haven assets such as the Japanese Yen and Gold higher. Markets now face the most-significant figure – Non-Farm Payrolls. A moderate increase of around 145,000 jobs is expected for September, but real expectations may be lower. Bloomberg's "whisper number" stands at 125,000. Wage growth is expected to rise by 3.2% yearly. Previews:
US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Gathered clouds
Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Meager job growth likely – Five EUR/USD scenarios - Richard Clarida, Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve, has said that global economic weakness is weighing on the US economy. He reiterated that the Fed is data-dependent and will act as appropriate. Chair Jerome Powell will speak just before markets close for the week and may hint a rate cut later this month. Odds show an 87% chance of a cut.
- Brexit: The EU is "unconvinced" by Prime Minister Boris Johnson's proposal that does not fully eliminate a border in the island of Ireland. GBP/USD has dropped from the highs above 1.24. According to press reports, the bloc has given Johnson until October 11 to come up with a new plan. The PM's plan may have secured support at home, with around 30 Labour MPS potentially backing his accord, in addition to the Brexit hardliners in his party. Other reports suggest that Johnson has a "Plan B" which reverts back to the original Irish backstop, but adds a time-limit – which is unlikely to fly with the EU.
- Impeachment: President Donald Trump has called on Ukraine and China to investigate potential rival Joe Biden while he is under investigation for using the powers of his office for political means. Support for impeaching Trump is gradually on the rise but remains insufficient to move Republicans against their standard-bearer. Political uncertainty has been adding to market pain.
- AUD/USD has advanced despite a small miss in retail sales numbers, 0.4% in August.
- US stocks and oil prices have recovered from their lows.
- Cryptocurrencies have been losing some ground with Bitcoin edging closer to $8,000.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance.
Gold reaches to all-time highs near $2,230, US PCE eyed
Gold price appreciates to all-time highs near $2,230 per troy ounce, attempting to continue its winning streak for the fifth successive session on Friday. However, trading volumes are light as market participants are likely observing Good Friday.
Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern
Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.
Key events in developed markets next week
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.