Forex Today: Cautiously optimistic amid mixed coronavirus news, ahead of key macro data


FX today in Asia was a quiet affair, as most majors traded in a tight range amid persistent broad-based US dollar strength and cautious optimism. China’s Hubei province reported a drop in new coronavirus cases while investors continued to fret over the negative economic fallout of the virus outbreak globally, as governments stepped up measures to soften the impact.

Within the G10 currency basket, EUR/USD hit a new 34-month low at 1.0828, as the US dollar index refreshed a four-month top. The cable, on the other hand, consolidated the latest upsurge around 1.3050 amid UK Cabinet reshuffle. Meanwhile, USD/JPY fluctuated between gains and losses while below 110.00 amid mixed Asian equities, lower Treasury yields and moderate gains in the S&P 500 futures. The Aussie attempted a tepid bounce from near 0.6710 but lacked follow-through while NZD/USD traded under pressure below 0.6450.

Oil prices steadied in Asia, having offered some support to the resource-linked Loonie. The safe-haven Swiss franc appeared to be the main laggard, as USD/CHF peeked briefly above the 0.9800. mark. The traditional safety bet, gold, also traded on the back foot below $1580.

Main Topics in Asia

 UK PM Johnson risks deepening tensions with US President Trump by canceling trip – The Sun

Fed's Williams: Thinks economy is in a very, very good place

Military: Rocket hits Iraq base hosting US troops – AFP

A cruise ship is in lock down in Sydney Harbour, passenger now being tested for possible coronavirus – The Australian

Japanese Eco Min Nishimura: Japan's Q4 2019 GDP 2019 likely weaker due to sales tax hike, typhoon

BoJ senior official: boj hopes to maintain powerful monetary easing to support economy

Moody's: Default risk rises for high-yield APAC corporates on slowing growth, trade policy uncertainty

China’s Hubei province reports 4,823 new cases of coronavirus

China’s NHC reports 5,090 new coronavirus cases for Thursday

BOK’s Lee: Working on financial help packages for the coronavirus-affected

S. Korean FinMin Hong: To deploy all available policy measures to boost domestic investment, KRW rebounds

Sources: India offers US its dairy, chicken access in bid for elusive trade deal with Trump - Reuters

Key Focus Ahead       

It’s a busy economic docket and markets gear up for preliminary GDP growth numbers for Germany and Eurozone for the final quarter of 2019, due at 0700 GMT and 1000 GMT respectively. The data will grab a lot of attention, given the rising concerns over the worsening economic conditions in the Euro area’s economic powerhouse, Germany.

Also, of note remains the Swiss Producer and Import Prices data and Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymaker Amamiya’s speech while the UK political developments will also be closely watched amid a lack of fundamental news from the UK docket.

Moving on, a flurry of US economic releases will dominate the NA session, with the key Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in focus for fresh dollar trades. Oil traders will look forward to the Baker Hughes US Oil Rigs Count data due at 1800 GMT for near-term trading opportunities.

When is the German preliminary Q4 GDP and how could it affect EUR/USD?

EUR/USD is looking south, having breached key support at 1.0879 earlier this week. The spot could easily slide below 1.08 if the German preliminary Q4 GDP disappoints, bolstering recession fears.

 GBP/USD looks for clear direction sub-1.3100 area

GBP/USD registers modest moves around 1.3050 amid a lack of fresh catalysts. The pair surged the previous day after a surprise resignation of FinMin Sajid Javid. The US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index can please the momentum traders.

US Retail Sales January Preview: Jobs and consumption are the core of the US economy

Retail sales forecast to be unchanged in January. Control group and ex-automobiles categories to moderate. Labor market and consumer sentiment remain strong backers.

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment February Preview: Looking in the labor market mirror

Sentiment to moderate slightly from eight month high. Current conditions index to edge higher, expectations to slip. Labor market performance is the key metric.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Feb 13
21:00
-2.7%
-1.5%
-3.1%
21:00
2.7%
2.6%
3.4%
21:45
2.1%
0.2%
-0.2%
22:30
 
 
23:50
¥282.9B
 
¥-295.6B
23:50
¥1,633.8B
 
¥-150.2B
Friday, Feb 14
n/a
 
 
$0.62B
03:00
7.5%
7.8%
8.1%
04:30
-0.2%
-1.6%
1.4% Revised from 1.3%
06:00
0.5%
 
2.3%
06:30
 
2.92%
2.59%
07:00
 
0.4%
0.5%
07:00
 
0.1%
0.1%
07:00
 
0.2%
1.0%
07:00
 
$-3.050B
$-0.518B
07:00
 
 
0.4%
07:00
 
3.3%
3.0%
07:30
 
-1.5%
-1.7%
07:30
 
0.0%
0.1%
08:00
 
-1.4%
-1.4%
08:00
 
1.1%
1.1%
08:00
 
-1%
-1%
08:00
 
1.1%
1.1%
08:00
 
4.5%
5.0%
08:00
 
3.2%
3.2%
08:00
 
1.0%
0.2%
08:00
 
1.9%
2.5%
08:00
 
 
3%
08:00
 
 
2.9%
08:00
 
 
-0.1%
08:00
 
-0.1%
-0.2%
08:00
 
2.3%
1.3%
09:00
 
€4.946B
€4.872B
09:00
 
 
€0.702B
09:00
 
4.2%
3.4%
09:00
 
0.6%
0.8%
09:30
 
 
1.9%
09:30
 
 
0.3%
10:00
 
1.2%
1.1%
10:00
 
1.0%
0.8%
10:00
 
 
10:00
 
€21.6B
€19.2B
10:00
 
€21.4B
€20.7B
10:00
 
1%
1%
10:00
 
0.1%
0.1%
10:00
 
0.1%
0.1%
10:00
 
0.8%
0.9%
11:30
 
6.7%
7.2%
11:30
 
 
$471.3B
n/a
 
$11.58B
$11.25B
12:00
 
0.7%
0.6%
12:00
 
 
0%
13:30
 
0.3%
0.5%
13:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
13:30
 
0.3%
0.7%
13:30
 
-0.2%
0.3%
13:30
 
2.5%
0.5%
13:30
 
-0.1%
-0.2%
13:30
 
-0.4%
-0.7%
14:15
 
76.8%
77.0%
14:15
 
-0.2%
-0.3%
15:00
 
99.5
99.8
15:00
 
0.1%
-0.2%
16:00
 
3.1%
3.3%
18:00
 
 
676
20:30
 
 
$299.8K
20:30
 
 
397.4K
20:30
 
 
$46.1K
20:30
 
 
£13K
20:30
 
 
¥-21.9K
20:30
 
 
€-75.1K
20:30
 
 
$-43.3K
Sunday, Feb 16
11:00
 
 
4.1%
21:30
 
 
51.9
21:45
 
4.0%
-3.5%
23:50
 
0.9%
0.6%
23:50
 
-3.7%
1.8%
23:50
 
-0.9%
0.4%
Monday, Feb 17
00:00
 
0.1%
0.1%
00:00
 
0.8%
0.8%
24h
 
 
00:01
 
 
2.7%
00:01
 
 
2.3%
01:00
 
 
0.4%
01:00
 
 
3.2%
01:30
 
 
6.6%
04:00
 
 
$-0.03B
04:00
 
 
1.28%
04:00
 
 
-5.62%
04:30
 
1.3%
1.3%
04:30
 
-3%
-3%
04:30
 
0.2%
-0.3%
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
07:00
 
 
25.6B
08:00
 
 
-30.8B
10:00
 
1.4%
1.4%
10:00
 
 
0.73%
n/a
 
 
13:00
 
1.7%
2.1%
13:30
 
 
$-1.75B
13:30
 
 
$5.55B
15:00
 
 
$-1,659M
Tuesday, Feb 18
00:30
 
 
24h
 
 
08:30
 
3.3%
3.3%
08:30
 
 
6%
09:30
 
 
3.5%
09:30
 
22.6K
14.9K
09:30
 
3.4%
3.4%
09:30
 
3.8%
3.8%
09:30
 
3.1%
3.2%
n/a
 
 
-0.45%
n/a
 
 
-0.499%
10:00
 
15.0
26.7
10:00
 
-13.5
-9.5
10:00
 
30.0
25.6
13:00
 
 
-4.3%
13:00
 
 
-0.4%
13:30
 
4.5
4.8
13:30
 
0.0%
-0.6%
15:00
 
74
75
n/a
 
0.0%
-4.7%
16:30
 
 
1.55%
16:30
 
 
1.51%
21:00
 
$25.5B
$22.9B
21:00
 
$-0.4B
$73.1B
23:30
 
 
0.05%
23:50
 
-7.1%
-6.3%
23:50
 
¥-150.0B
¥-152.5B
23:50
 
-15.8%
-4.9%
23:50
 
¥-64.2B
¥-102.5B
23:50
 
-0.8%
18.0%
23:50
 
3.4%
5.3%
Wednesday, Feb 19
00:30
 
0.5%
0.5%
00:30
 
2.3%
2.2%
06:00
 
 
0.9%
07:00
 
 
-1.3%
07:00
 
 
0%
08:00
 
4.4%
4.0%
08:00
 
0.3%
0.3%
08:00
 
 
08:30
 
 
0.4%
08:30
 
1.8%
1.8%
09:00
 
6.7%
6.2%
09:00
 
€36.4B
€33.9B
09:00
 
€42.4B
€36.6B
09:30
 
-0.9%
0.3%
09:30
 
1.9%
2.2%
09:30
 
1.8%
2.2%
09:30
 
-0.1%
0.0%
09:30
 
3.5%
-0.1%
09:30
 
1.2%
0.9%
09:30
 
0.1%
-0.1%
09:30
 
0.6%
0.9%
09:30
 
-0.4%
0.1%
09:30
 
1.5%
1.4%
09:30
 
1.3%
1.3%
09:30
 
-0.8%
0.0%
n/a
 
 
0.31%
11:00
 
11.50%
11.25%
11:00
 
 
€-0.406B
12:00
 
 
1.1%
13:30
 
1.390M
1.608M
13:30
 
1.450M
1.420M Revised from 1.416M
13:30
 
-0.1%
-3.7% Revised from -3.9%
13:30
 
-30.7%
16.9%
13:30
 
0.2%
0.1%
13:30
 
1.4%
1.3%
13:30
 
0.2%
0.1%
13:30
 
1.2%
1.1%
13:30
 
 
0.1%
13:30
 
2.2%
2.2%
13:30
 
1.8%
1.7%
13:30
 
0.4%
-0.4%
13:30
 
0.1%
0.0%
13:55
 
 
-0.7%
13:55
 
 
4.8%
14:00
 
 
-6
19:00
 
 
21:00
 
0.4%
0.3%
21:00
 
1.4%
0.7%
21:30
 
 
21:30
 
 
6M
21:45
 
0.4%
0.9%
21:45
 
0.3%
1.0%
23:50
 
 
¥1,633.8B
23:50
 
 
¥282.9B
Thursday, Feb 20
24h
 
 
00:30
 
66%
66%
00:30
 
5.2%
5.1%
00:30
 
31.0K
28.9K
00:30
 
 
-0.3K
00:30
 
 
29.2K
01:30
 
 
4.15%
05:30
 
 
3.2%
05:30
 
 
1.3%
05:30
 
 
-3
07:00
 
9.8
9.9
07:00
 
-0.2%
-0.2%
07:00
 
0.2%
0.1%
07:00
 
 
58.8
07:00
 
 
4.5
07:00
 
3,361M
1,964M
07:00
 
 
17,232M
07:00
 
 
15,268M
n/a
 
 
5%
07:45
 
1.6%
1.6%
07:45
 
-0.5%
-0.5%
07:45
 
 
0.5%
08:30
 
2.9%
2.9%
09:00
 
-0.1%
3.8%
09:00
 
0.8%
1.0%
09:30
 
0.6%
-0.6%
09:30
 
1.0%
0.9%
09:30
 
0.1%
-0.8%
09:30
 
0.7%
0.7%
09:30
 
5.0%
4.9%
n/a
 
 
0.347%
n/a
 
 
-0.301%
n/a
 
 
-0.103%
10:00
 
 
€-1.392B
11:00
 
-23
-22
11:00
 
 
0.2%
11:00
 
 
1.1%
11:00
 
 
0.2%
11:00
 
 
1.3%
11:00
 
 
-0.8%
12:00
 
0.70%
0.71%
12:30
 
 
13:00
 
 
$562.2B
13:00
 
4.7%
4.6%
13:30
 
 
1.698M
13:30
 
 
212K
13:30
 
 
205K
13:30
 
10
17
13:30
 
 
€-416B
13:30
 
71.8K
46.2K
13:30
 
0.1%
0.1%
13:30
 
 
0.2%
15:00
 
-8.0
-8.1
15:30
 
 
-115B
16:00
 
-1.648M
7.459M
16:30
 
 
1.56%
18:00
 
 
12.25%
24h
 
 
22:00
 
 
50.2
22:00
 
52.4
50.6
22:00
 
48.9
49.6
23:30
 
0.9%
0.9%
23:30
 
0.7%
0.8%
23:30
 
0.7%
0.7%
Friday, Feb 21
00:30
 
49.0
48.8
04:30
 
 
0.9%

 

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