Fed: on track for a December hike - Danske Bank

Analysts from Danske Bank continue to see a case for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December after the FOMC minutes. 

Key Quotes: 

“Here, we already know the different positions among the FOMC members. The most dovish FOMC members (Lael Brainard, Charles L. Evans and Neel Kashkari) argued that the Fed should not hike further this year, as low inflation may not be just transitory due to low inflation expectations and labour market slack. The core FOMC members on the other hand think it is appropriate to tighten monetary policy further, as above-trend growth tightens the labour market further, which eventually leads to higher wage growth and hence higher inflation; in other words, they still have a strong belief in the Phillips curve. In our view, they are likely to feel relieved about the latest average hourly earnings figures, which came out much higher than expected in September.”

“All in all, it remains our base case that the Fed will hike in December, as the core voting FOMC members put more weight on labour market data than current inflation data, although we agree with the dovish camp that low inflation may not be temporary due to low inflation expectations.”

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