“We expect Draghi to repeat his ‘glass half full’ message after the ECB meeting Thursday, repeating the message since summer and noting that economic developments are broadly on track. Therefore, despite an (on paper) hawkish policy move of ending the net asset purchases, we expect a dovish tightening as confirmation and reassurance of an accommodative monetary policy stance going forward. We expect no new guidance on the first rate hike.”
“We expect a cautiously optimistic tone from Draghi on (core) inflation, but a relatively upbeat and confident wording on wage growth developments.”
“On Friday, we get the December euro area flash PMIs. Activity remained weak in November with composite PMI falling to a four-year low. In December, we look for another small decline in manufacturing PMI to 51.3 in line with the still negative order-inventory balance, but see scope for a stabilisation in service PMI at 53.5.”
“On Tuesday, we also get German ZEW figures.”
“We will also keep an eye on November EU car registration numbers due on Friday. Usually this is not a market mover, but production bottlenecks in the car sector due to new emission test standards led to a sharp contraction in German GDP growth in Q3.”
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