Europe: Centrist parties still the biggest in Parliament?

Analysts at ABN AMRO explain that the European parliamentary elections, which are scheduled on 26 May has traditionally been dominated by the centre-right conservative European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialist and Democrats (S&D).

Key Quotes

“The two parties currently hold respectively 217 and 187 of the total of 751 seats in the European parliament. So combined they occupy almost 54% of the seats. Recent opinion polls (which are rarer than for the national elections) have indicated that both parties have lost quite a lot of support, with the EPP falling to around 170-175 seats and the S&D to around 130-135 of the total 705 seats that are left to be divided following Brexit. That would mean that the two parties combined would no longer have a majority of the seats (only around 43%).”

“Meanwhile, some nationalist populist right-wing parties have grouped in the Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF), of which the French National Rally (or Rassemblement National, previously called Front National) and the Italian Lega are the main members. Although they could still be joined by more groups or parties, they currently would get around 60-65 seats.”

“The other populist group the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) would lose 24 of its current 41 seats in the European parliament after the departure of the UK’s Independent/UKIP members following Brexit. Still, opinion polls suggest that the group would get around 35 seats at the forthcoming election, mainly candidates from Italy’s M5S and Germany’s AfD.”

“Finally, the newly formed conservative Eurosceptic group European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by the right-wing populist Polish Law and Justice party, should get around 58 (8%) of the seats in the European parliament. Despite the rise of eurosceptic/populist parties, the largest two parties, can still combine with others (such as the Green block – at around 45-50 seats), to push through legislation.”

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