Ned Rumpeltin, European Head of FX Strategy at TD Securities, notes that reports the ECB is concerned over regional banks' exposure to Turkey have seen a broad USD rally emerge and the break below 1.15 in EURUSD suggests renewed immediate downside risks for the pair.
“We are cautious, however, and want to see how the dust settles. It is important to differentiate the ECB's monetary policy mandate from its supervisory functions. The read across is limited at this stage.”
“Thus far, key support around 1.1448 has remained sticky, the 50% Fibonacci-retracement level of the trading range since the end-2016 lows. We think this is now the crucial pivot for near-term direction.”
“A weekly close at or above could point to a lack of follow-through selling pressure. This would raise risks that the range break was temporary and a result of seasonally-thin liquidity.”
“Below 1.1448, the next major attractor lower comes in at 1.1310. A push below would suggest clear downside risks to our year-end forecast of 1.21 for the pair.”
“We think the USD uptrend looks increasingly stretched. Valuation and positioning risks are rising. We think near-term pushback against USD strength from the US administration looks increasingly likely.”
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