In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, still sees scope for a test of the 1.2170 region.
“EUR/USD is approaching the 5 month uptrend at 1.1809. While this second uptrend holds we remain unable to rule out an extension to the 50% retracement from the move down from the 2014 high at 1.2168 and the 1.2372 200 month ma, but if seen, that is expected to hold. It should be noted that we consider this to be the end phase of the bull trend. It should also be noted that we consider the chance of a trend break as high. Currently intraday rallies are indicated to fail circa 1.19125/50”.
“Failure at the five month uptrend line will negate the up move and trigger losses initially to the 1.1662 August low and the mid-June high at 1.1296 and the more important 1.1110 end of May low”.
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