EUR/USD: Market may have based longer term, bulls look to the 1.1570, 2019 high


  • EUR/USD has been under pressure in New York as the dollar runs higher. 
  • EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1282, virtually flat on the day so far having travelled between 1.1245/85.

Its been a busy day for the single currency. There has been a strong correlation to the performance of European stocks which have followed Asian stocks higher with the maintained dovish tone of Powell's testimony and the FOMC minutes the main driver. However, first of all, the ECB minutes showed that the Governing Council is ready to cut interest rates, while Board member B.Coeure said earlier in the day the central bank is concerned about the protracted low inflation in the region. The broad-based USD weakness has reversed where otherwise, with EUR higher by +0.15% into the New York open. The US inflation figures tracked by the Core Consumer Price Index, (CPI), rose above estimates during June: 0.3% inter-month and 2.1% from a year earlier. The CPI prints lifted US yields which have widened the spread differentials vs. their European peers and sunk the euro a touch. 

Powell's second day of testimony has essentially echoed yesterday which had temporarily dented the Dollar's advance leading up to the event, but the Dollar was able to shake off the prospects of a rate cut, considering the US CPI data means that the Fed is unlikely going to need to cut by 50bps and 25bps are already priced in. 

 Below are some key takeaways, per Reuters from today's Q&A:

  • "Businesses are starting to hold back on investment, it has really slowed down here."
  • "We see really weak economic performance in Asia and Europe."
  • "Many of my colleagues on the FOMC have come to the view that a somewhat more accommodative policy may be appropriate."
  • "Bad outcomes have happened when central bank independence is diminished."
  • "We will always do what we think is right for the economy."


The euro is likely to be on the back foot in the absence of any hawkish ECB speeches or data surprises in the EZ and markets continue to price a 10bps in a rate cut by the ECB by the September meeting. However, longer term, should the Fed continue to cut rates and if the trade war backdrop does not improve, the dollar could come back under pressure. Should EUR/USd drift higher, bulls will look 1.1570, as the 2019 high.

EUR/USD levels

"We regard the April and May lows at 1.1110/06 as a turning point and continue to view the market as based longer term and target 1.1990 (measurement higher from the wedge)," analysts at Commerzbank argued. 

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.1253
Today Daily Change 0.0002
Today Daily Change % 0.02
Today daily open 1.1251
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.1285
Daily SMA50 1.124
Daily SMA100 1.1257
Daily SMA200 1.1328
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.1264
Previous Daily Low 1.1202
Previous Weekly High 1.1373
Previous Weekly Low 1.1207
Previous Monthly High 1.1414
Previous Monthly Low 1.116
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.124
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1226
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1213
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.1176
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.115
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1276
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1302
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1339

 

 

 

 

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD off 7-month highs, still firmer as Tories hold the lead

GBP/USD retraces from the new seven-month highs of 1.3180 but remains strongly bid, as weekend polls have reaffirmed a solid lead for PM Johnson's Conservatives. Cable dropped on Friday amid upbeat US data.

GBP/USD News

EUR/USD steadying above 1.1050 amid upbeat German export data

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1050, attempting a recovery after Germany reported an increase in exports in October. EUR/UDS dropped sharply on Friday amid upbeat US Non-Farm Payrolls and weak German industrial output. 

EUR/USD News

Forex Today: US-Sino trade tensions prevail, Boris closer to victory, EUR/USD licking its wounds

Trade talks: President Donald Trump has called on the World Bank to stop lending to China, a move that may aggravate tensions, with only six days to go until Washington is set to slap new tariffs on Beijing. Negotiations continue.

Read more

Gold clings to modest gains above $1460 level, lacks follow-through

The latest NFP report surpassed most optimistic estimates, which provided a goodish intraday lift to the US dollar and eventually prompted some aggressive selling around the dollar-denominated commodity.

Gold News

USD/JPY: tensions between Washington and Beijing back the JPY

Japanese Q3 Gross Domestic Product doubled the market’s expectations, up by 0.4%. The US calendar has nothing to offer today, attention focus on Washington-Beijing relationship. USD/JPY pressuring the post-NFP low, decline to accelerate once below 108.40.

USD/JPY News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures