EUR/USD is under pressure as the FOMC confirm hawkish bias


  • EUR/USD bears fail to take the cross over the line despite hawkish FOMC minutes.
  • US dollar remains firmly in the bullish territory and eyes 97 the figure, DXY. 

Volatility has been the name of the game midweek as traders look to the Federal Reserve for clues as to the timing of the first-rate hike in 2022. The FOMC minutes have confirmed a hawkish bias, albeit dependant on the covid contagion risks. 

Nevertheless, the US dollar has surged towards the 97 figure on the day as Fed officials advocate for the case of a faster speed in tapering. The Fed meeting in December could well be the time for doing so. 

In the minutes today, participants judged prices may take longer to ease and some participants said faster taper could be warranted. This has seen the US dollar firmly underpinned in the 96.90s and the euro backed into a corner. 

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at  1.1193 and down by some 0.50%. On top of the Fed risk, Germany has reported more than 70,000 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record, with some areas yet to report.

Meanwhile, ''the Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index, DBCVIX, which measures expectations for gyrations in FX, has in recent weeks shot from a three-month low to its highest level since March, driven by gyrations in the US dollar, euro, and Japanese yen as well as a broad range of other currencies'', Reuters reported. 

Nevertheless, with the session coming to a close and the Thanksgiving holidays tomorrow, the currency market has shut down and consolidation is now taking shape. The euro is holding up despite the bearish environment:

EUR/USD technical analysis

However, given the recent tilt in members such as Daly and the fact that both the Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures have inched higher since the last Fed meeting when coupled with the dovishness at the European Central Bank, such funds should see this price topple in coming sessions. 

The downside below 1.1650 sees 1.10 the figure as the next key target. 

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