EUR/USD flirts with 50-hour MA ahead of German ZEW survey, Draghi's speech

  • EUR/USD is grappling with key average resistance at press time. 
  • Better-than-expected German Zew surveys could put a bid under the EUR. 
  • ECB's Draghi has little room to sound hawkish. 

EUR/USD is chipping away at the 50-hour moving average line ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's speech and key German data releases. 

The currency pair picked up a bid in the US trading hours on Monday and rose to the 50-hour MA, then located at 1.1247, on the back of weak US data. The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for June printed at 8.6 versus the expected expansion of 10. 

The rise, however, was short-lived with the pair falling back to 1.1214 by NY close only to rise back to the 50-hour MA in Asia. 

The key average could be breached if the German Zew surveys paint a positive picture of the Eurozone's largest economy. The data, however, is expected to show the economic sentiment index deteriorated to -5.8 in June from -2.1 in May. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone reading is forecasted to drop to -3.6 from -1.6.

Apart from Zew surveys, the pair will also take cues from Draghi's speaking rounds at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal. With market-based measures of inflation expectations recently sliding to record lows, Draghi has little room to sound hawkish.

Even so, the EUR/USD pair may find takers if German Zew surveys beat estimates and the US housing data, due at 12:30 GMT, misses expectations by a big margin, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations. The US central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged tomorrow and lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. 

Pivot levels

    1. R3 1.1286
    2. R2 1.1267
    3. R1 1.1242
  1. PP 1.1223
    1. S1 1.1198
    2. S2 1.1179
    3. S3 1.1154


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