24-hour view: “We expected EUR to ‘trade sideways within a 1.1840/1.1890 range yesterday’. However, EUR rose to a high of 1.1905, plunged to 1.1799 before rebounding to end the day slightly lower at 1.1840 (-0.11%). The sudden expansion in volatility and range has clouded the shortterm outlook. Further choppy price actions are not ruled but overall, EUR is likely to stay within yesterday’s broad range of 1.1799/1.1905.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “One week ago (17 Nov, spot at 1.1860), we indicated that ‘upward momentum has improved slightly but EUR has to close above 1.1920 in order to indicate that it has moved out of its consolidation phase’. As EUR struggles to move higher, we noted last Friday (20 Nov) that “there is still chance for EUR to make a push above 1.1920”. EUR rose to a high of 1.1905 yesterday (23 Nov) before selling off suddenly to a low of 1.1799. While our ‘strong support’ level at 1.1790 is still intact, the rapid loss in momentum suggests that EUR is not ready to move above 1.1920 just yet. From here, EUR could trade sideways for a period of time and only a break out of the expected 1.1760/1.1920 range would indicate the start of a more sustained directional movement.”
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