Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Stefan Mellin sees the Swedish Krona appreciating to the 9.30 area vs. the single currency within a year’s view.
“Summer weeks typically mean lower liquidity in the SEK market, where June has typically been SEK negative”.
“Main scheduled event risk is the Riksbank meeting on 4 July. We expect no changes with respect to rates, repo rate forecast and QE programme, which should be consensus. We would not rule out a scrapping of the current 3bp easing bias though, given the inflation data and the ECB’s recent move (potentially SEK positive)”.
“Our short-term models suggest that EUR/SEK is overbought but the timing to exploit that gap is difficult. In all, we raise the 1-3M forecast to 9.70 (9.60) and 9.60 (9.50) and keep 6-12M at 9.50 and 9.30 respectively”.
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