EU thinks UK could be hit 10 times as hard by no deal News - The Independent


The UK daily, the Independent, carried the latest analysis by the European Commission that showed the European Union (EU) officials are working on the basis that the UK's economy will be hit up to 10 times as hard by a no-deal Brexit.

Key Highlights from the Documents:

A "state of play" document put out by the commission this week, meant to brief EU leaders, MEPs, and central bankers on the current situation, cites a 2019 estimate by the IMF that the long-term effect on the EU's GDP by a no deal will be "well below 1 per cent".

The commission says this is "in line with most other studies".

"As the commission has constantly stressed, contingency measures can only mitigate the most significant disruptions of a withdrawal without an agreement. While the commission does not speculate on the possible economic implications of different scenarios, it is clear that a withdrawal of the United Kingdom without an agreement would have a serious negative economic impact, and that this impact would be proportionally much greater in the United Kingdom than the EU27 member states.”

"Preparations by member states and stakeholders are likely to reduce their individual exposure to the negative impact of a withdrawal without an agreement. A high level of preparedness across all sectors of the economy will also mitigate the negative impact.”

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