Forex: AUD/USD upside capped at 1.0440

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The 1.0440 level has proved to be a strong barrier for Aussie traders on Monday, as demonstrated by successive failed attempts to follow through that mark.

Anyway, it is a positive session for AUD, boosted after Chinese trade data have shown that exports rose 11.6% and the trade surplus has widened during October. Domestic data was also solid, after Home Loans rose 0.9% in September, the biggest level since December 2011

Jane Foley at Rabobank comments “AUD net longs have risen for the third consecutive week as rate cut fears die back”, according to the last IMM Net Positioning report.
Regarding the Home Loans results, Adrian Foster at Rabobank argues “the improvement makes further interest rate cuts less likely with events in Europe a critical swing factor. If tensions re-escalate in European bond markets that would be a trigger for a further cut”.

At the moment, AUD/USD is up 0.29% at 1.0430 with the next hurdle waiting at 1.0435 (high Nov.9) followed by 1.0445 (high Nov.8) then 1.0480 (high Nov.7) and 1.0500 (psychological level).
On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.0365 (low Nov.6) would expose 1.0333 (low Nov.5) then 1.0331 (low Nov.2) and 1.0326 (low Oct.30).

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