Flash: Still making up their minds – BAML

FXstreet.com (London) - Michael S. Hanson and Priya Misra at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research believe the FOMC is still making up its mind on tapering, and thus, will not strongly signal a September start at the July 30-31 meeting.

Key Quotes:

“At the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, we expect an ambiguous signal from the Fed about the exact timing of tapering, causing markets to rethink whether September really is a done deal”.

“The majority of voters are likely still looking to move before year-end”.

“…given the weak GDP and inflation data, there probably is not a strong consensus about exactly when to pull the trigger”.

“We would expect the FOMC to do a meeting-by-meeting reassessment, consistent with a data dependent approach. This could mean not only a later start to tapering, but a bit of a surprise when they finally move”.